Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Lindholm 55.4% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 65.2%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 63.9%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 68.2%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
McDavid
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
McDavid
Lindholm
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Lindholm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Lindholm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
3
McDavid
Lindholm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
57.7% (1,124)
-6.2%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
52.9% (155)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
48.6% (259)
+2.6%
On power play, McDavid has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Lindholm is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,140).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lindholm
Home
50.7% (513)
55.7% (760)
Away
53.2% (498)
55.8% (778)
By Period
McDavid
Lindholm
P1
52.3%
53.7%
P2
51.6%
58.3%
P3
51.7%
55.1%
OT
100.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 13:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 08:03 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 09:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:53 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:18 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |