Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Lindholm 54.9% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 79.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 78.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
McDavid
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
McDavid
Lindholm
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
2
McDavid
Lindholm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
4
McDavid
Lindholm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Lindholm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
54.9% (937)
-7.2%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
60.4% (265)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
49.4% (172)
-27.2%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Lindholm is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,115).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lindholm
Home
47.3% (387)
54.4% (688)
Away
48.1% (389)
56.1% (686)
By Period
McDavid
Lindholm
P1
47.6%
57.2%
P2
50.0%
54.3%
P3
45.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
46.8%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:01 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |