Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 50.1%). Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 49.6% vs Evans 50.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 54.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
McDavid
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
13
(20 meetings)
7
13
McDavid
Evans
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
3
McDavid
Evans
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
5
McDavid
Evans
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
5
McDavid
Evans
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (621)
52.2% (320)
-3.1%
Power Play
78.6% (14)
100.0% (2)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
41.0% (83)
-41.0%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +41.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. McDavid is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (182).
McDavid shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
McDavid
Evans
Home
56.1% (330)
54.3% (223)
Away
42.5% (308)
45.1% (182)
By Period
McDavid
Evans
P1
49.2%
53.9%
P2
47.4%
44.9%
P3
53.0%
52.5%
Final 5 min
51.3%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 3 | 11:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 07:22 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 09:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 09:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 04:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 17:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 05:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 01:45 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |