Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Evans 52.0% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 64.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
McDavid
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
McDavid
Evans
Last 9: McDavid 2-7 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Evans
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
4
McDavid
Evans
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
McDavid
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
54.4% (807)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
55.0% (20)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
46.1% (310)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
McDavid
Evans
Home
51.8% (415)
53.7% (581)
Away
50.4% (450)
50.5% (556)
By Period
McDavid
Evans
P1
47.5%
54.6%
P2
51.6%
50.0%
P3
55.5%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 04:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |