Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Evans 55.4% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 85.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
McDavid
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
McDavid
Evans
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Evans
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
McDavid
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Evans
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
56.2% (477)
-8.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
70.0% (10)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
55.4% (204)
-8.9%
On power play, Evans has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
McDavid
Evans
Home
50.2% (400)
55.3% (374)
Away
44.7% (365)
57.1% (317)
By Period
McDavid
Evans
P1
47.5%
58.5%
P2
48.6%
55.7%
P3
46.7%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |