Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.9% vs 52.0%). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Evans 51.7% (-0.1%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 69.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 62.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
McDavid
Evans
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
54.5% (483)
-3.0%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
58.3% (12)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
43.9% (155)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Home / Away
McDavid
Evans
Home
50.7% (513)
49.4% (336)
Away
53.2% (498)
54.8% (314)
By Period
McDavid
Evans
P1
52.3%
55.8%
P2
51.6%
51.7%
P3
51.7%
48.2%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%