Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.5% vs Carter 48.8% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 82.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 82.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
McDavid
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
McDavid
Carter
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
4
McDavid
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
4
McDavid
Carter
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
McDavid
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (578)
48.5% (977)
-7.8%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
57.8% (128)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
40.7% (123)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. McDavid is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
McDavid shoots left. Carter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (836).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carter
Home
42.7% (323)
50.8% (597)
Away
39.5% (281)
46.8% (631)
By Period
McDavid
Carter
P1
42.3%
48.8%
P2
37.3%
48.0%
P3
43.4%
49.4%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2016 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 00:16 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 3 | 10:25 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 2 | 14:32 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 25, 2015 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 25, 2015 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 25, 2015 | 1 | 13:21 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |