Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 22 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Carter 53.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 43-20 in 63 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 93.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 91.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 90.9%
90.9%
9.1%
McDavid
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
43
(63 meetings)
20
43
McDavid
Carter
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
6
13
McDavid
Carter
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
8
14
McDavid
Carter
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
6
16
McDavid
Carter
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
53.3% (8,728)
-5.6%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
57.3% (1,554)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
46.3% (1,087)
-2.9%
On even strength, Carter has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carter
Home
49.3% (4,570)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
McDavid
Carter
P1
46.5%
53.6%
P2
48.7%
52.8%
P3
48.3%
53.1%
OT
40.9%
56.5%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 2 | 09:28 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 16:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 13:57 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 10:15 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 2 | 06:51 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 1 | 18:12 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 2 | 17:04 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |