Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Carter 58.5% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 64.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 92.4%
Neutral zone
Carter 81.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
McDavid
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
McDavid
Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
59.7% (727)
-8.2%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
68.1% (72)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
53.2% (139)
-2.0%
On even strength, Carter has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carter
Home
50.7% (513)
58.7% (455)
Away
53.2% (498)
60.0% (483)
By Period
McDavid
Carter
P1
52.3%
61.3%
P2
51.6%
57.1%
P3
51.7%
59.8%
OT
100.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
60.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |