Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Carter 56.4% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 71.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
McDavid
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McDavid
Carter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
McDavid
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
57.9% (885)
-3.6%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
61.7% (133)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
45.4% (119)
-12.1%
On power play, Carter has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carter
Home
53.6% (507)
58.2% (543)
Away
53.8% (539)
55.9% (594)
By Period
McDavid
Carter
P1
52.6%
57.5%
P2
54.1%
57.1%
P3
54.9%
55.8%
OT
44.4%
68.2%
Final 5 min
52.2%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |