Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Toews 58.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 80.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 74.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
McDavid
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Toews
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
McDavid
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
58.0% (901)
-3.7%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
69.5% (226)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
51.7% (209)
-18.4%
On power play, Toews has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
McDavid
Toews
Home
53.6% (507)
59.3% (637)
Away
53.8% (539)
58.7% (699)
By Period
McDavid
Toews
P1
52.6%
61.5%
P2
54.1%
55.2%
P3
54.9%
60.0%
OT
44.4%
70.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 19:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 15:46 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |