Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Toews 61.9% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 66.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
McDavid
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McDavid
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
McDavid
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
McDavid
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
61.1% (650)
-9.6%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
71.9% (192)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
59.6% (99)
-8.4%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
McDavid
Toews
Home
50.7% (513)
64.8% (560)
Away
53.2% (498)
60.6% (381)
By Period
McDavid
Toews
P1
52.3%
62.3%
P2
51.6%
63.9%
P3
51.7%
62.8%
OT
100.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
60.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 16:01 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |