Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Toews 60.3% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
McDavid
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Toews
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
McDavid
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
62.5% (696)
-15.0%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
59.6% (141)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
46.9% (32)
-0.4%
On even strength, Toews has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
McDavid
Toews
Home
50.2% (400)
60.9% (435)
Away
44.7% (365)
62.0% (434)
By Period
McDavid
Toews
P1
47.5%
59.8%
P2
48.6%
65.7%
P3
46.7%
58.8%
OT
33.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 14:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |