Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Stenlund 54.3% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 89.2%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 57.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
McDavid
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
56.1% (615)
-8.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
53.2% (47)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
52.1% (307)
-5.6%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stenlund
Home
50.2% (400)
57.0% (458)
Away
44.7% (365)
52.6% (511)
By Period
McDavid
Stenlund
P1
47.5%
55.1%
P2
48.6%
53.3%
P3
46.7%
56.4%
OT
33.3%
42.1%
Final 5 min
51.3%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |