Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Stenlund 52.7% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 81.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 57.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
McDavid
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
McDavid
Stenlund
Last 9: McDavid 1-8 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
6
McDavid
Stenlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
McDavid
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
58.2% (359)
-6.7%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
47.1% (17)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
42.0% (150)
+9.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Stenlund is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stenlund
Home
50.7% (513)
53.6% (261)
Away
53.2% (498)
52.8% (265)
By Period
McDavid
Stenlund
P1
52.3%
55.4%
P2
51.6%
51.5%
P3
51.7%
52.9%
Final 5 min
56.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:10 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:44 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |