Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 87.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 56.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 69.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
McDavid
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McDavid
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
3
McDavid
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
58.6% (797)
-10.9%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
62.5% (24)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
60.5% (233)
-38.3%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +38.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stenlund
Home
47.3% (387)
58.6% (548)
Away
48.1% (389)
59.7% (506)
By Period
McDavid
Stenlund
P1
47.6%
60.2%
P2
50.0%
59.1%
P3
45.0%
58.3%
Final 5 min
46.8%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |