Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.4%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Stenlund 51.2% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.9%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 71.0%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 57.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
McDavid
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
54.4% (592)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
42.9% (14)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
44.1% (229)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stenlund
Home
51.8% (415)
50.7% (402)
Away
50.4% (450)
52.0% (433)
By Period
McDavid
Stenlund
P1
47.5%
56.5%
P2
51.6%
52.4%
P3
55.5%
45.2%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |