Connor McDavid vs Kevin Stenlund
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Stenlund 54.0% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 89.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 73.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
McDavid
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
McDavid
Stenlund
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
2
McDavid
Stenlund
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
9
McDavid
Stenlund
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
2
McDavid
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
55.3% (2,703)
-7.6%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
52.6% (116)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
50.6% (919)
-7.2%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stenlund
Home
49.3% (4,570)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
McDavid
Stenlund
P1
46.5%
56.4%
P2
48.7%
53.3%
P3
48.3%
52.8%
OT
40.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:10 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:44 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 15:46 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |