Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Eller 55.7% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 83.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 65.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
McDavid
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
56.5% (434)
-9.0%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
77.8% (9)
-29.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
56.5% (46)
-10.0%
On power play, Eller has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
McDavid
Eller
Home
50.2% (400)
53.1% (211)
Away
44.7% (365)
59.7% (278)
By Period
McDavid
Eller
P1
47.5%
55.4%
P2
48.6%
58.1%
P3
46.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.3%
60.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |