Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Eller 52.0% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 71.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 58.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
McDavid
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Eller
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
McDavid
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
52.8% (742)
-1.2%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
67.6% (34)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
46.2% (156)
-9.8%
On power play, Eller has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
McDavid
Eller
Home
51.8% (415)
54.5% (448)
Away
50.4% (450)
50.2% (484)
By Period
McDavid
Eller
P1
47.5%
52.8%
P2
51.6%
50.9%
P3
55.5%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 13:08 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 2 | 19:10 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |