Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Eller 53.3% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 65.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 57.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
McDavid
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McDavid
Eller
Last 7: McDavid 4-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
McDavid
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
53.8% (865)
-2.3%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
57.1% (21)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
52.6% (137)
-1.4%
On power play, McDavid has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Home / Away
McDavid
Eller
Home
50.7% (513)
56.4% (486)
Away
53.2% (498)
51.2% (537)
By Period
McDavid
Eller
P1
52.3%
55.1%
P2
51.6%
55.3%
P3
51.7%
51.7%
OT
100.0%
27.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |