Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs McTavish 43.3% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 91.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 89.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 80.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
McDavid
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McDavid
McTavish
Last 7: McDavid 6-1 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
McTavish
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
McTavish
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
42.4% (675)
+9.1%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
40.5% (42)
+23.4%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
50.0% (8)
+1.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
McDavid
McTavish
Home
50.7% (513)
41.9% (372)
Away
53.2% (498)
42.8% (353)
By Period
McDavid
McTavish
P1
52.3%
47.2%
P2
51.6%
36.2%
P3
51.7%
43.6%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2023 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 3 | 04:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 17:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 17:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |