Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs McTavish 50.6% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.8%
Defensive zone
McTavish 50.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 54.1%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
McDavid
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
McTavish
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
McDavid
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
51.1% (769)
-3.4%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
50.6% (178)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
28.6% (14)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, McTavish has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
Home / Away
McDavid
McTavish
Home
47.3% (387)
52.3% (461)
Away
48.1% (389)
49.2% (500)
By Period
McDavid
McTavish
P1
47.6%
51.5%
P2
50.0%
54.0%
P3
45.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 01:17 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |