Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.7%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs McTavish 51.5% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 59.2%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
McDavid
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
McDavid
McTavish
Last 7: McDavid 5-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
2
McDavid
McTavish
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
McTavish
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
51.3% (725)
+0.3%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
55.8% (113)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
28.6% (7)
+7.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
McDavid
McTavish
Home
51.8% (415)
52.0% (454)
Away
50.4% (450)
51.4% (391)
By Period
McDavid
McTavish
P1
47.5%
51.3%
P2
51.6%
50.4%
P3
55.5%
53.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 07:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 15:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:45 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |