Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs McTavish 49.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
McDavid
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
McDavid
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
McDavid
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
McDavid
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
47.6% (616)
-0.1%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
57.8% (102)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
33.3% (6)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
McDavid
McTavish
Home
50.2% (400)
52.2% (389)
Away
44.7% (365)
45.1% (335)
By Period
McDavid
McTavish
P1
47.5%
50.0%
P2
48.6%
47.9%
P3
46.7%
49.0%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |