Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 47.7%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Beniers 47.8% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.0%
Defensive zone
Beniers 56.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
McDavid
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
McDavid
Beniers
Last 6: McDavid 5-1 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Beniers
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Beniers
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
48.3% (1,050)
-0.6%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
42.9% (105)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
43.6% (39)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Beniers is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
McDavid
Beniers
Home
47.3% (387)
48.7% (630)
Away
48.1% (389)
46.5% (564)
By Period
McDavid
Beniers
P1
47.6%
49.2%
P2
50.0%
45.0%
P3
45.0%
49.3%
Final 5 min
46.8%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:47 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:14 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |