Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Beniers 49.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 15-2 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
McDavid
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
15
(17 meetings)
2
15
McDavid
Beniers
Last 10: McDavid 1-9 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
4
McDavid
Beniers
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
3
McDavid
Beniers
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
8
McDavid
Beniers
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
48.9% (833)
-1.4%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
58.3% (36)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.0% (32)
-3.5%
On power play, Beniers has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
McDavid
Beniers
Home
50.2% (400)
52.4% (460)
Away
44.7% (365)
46.0% (441)
By Period
McDavid
Beniers
P1
47.5%
48.4%
P2
48.6%
51.1%
P3
46.7%
47.8%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:32 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 16:16 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |