Connor McDavid vs Mikael Granlund
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 48.2%). Look for Granlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Granlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Granlund 48.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.0%
Defensive zone
Granlund 52.4%
Neutral zone
Granlund 50.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
McDavid
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McDavid
Granlund
Last 7: McDavid 3-4 Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
0
3
McDavid
Granlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Granlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Granlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
48.7% (446)
-1.2%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
56.6% (99)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
31.1% (61)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Granlund is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
McDavid
Granlund
Home
50.2% (400)
53.3% (255)
Away
44.7% (365)
44.4% (351)
By Period
McDavid
Granlund
P1
47.5%
51.3%
P2
48.6%
48.8%
P3
46.7%
44.4%
OT
33.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |