Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 47.4%). Look for Kadri on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Kadri 47.6% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 57.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 58.5%
Neutral zone
Kadri 52.4%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
McDavid
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Kadri
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
3
McDavid
Kadri
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Kadri
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
2
McDavid
Kadri
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
47.4% (821)
+0.1%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
48.8% (86)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
38.5% (13)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Kadri is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kadri
Home
50.2% (400)
46.6% (487)
Away
44.7% (365)
48.3% (433)
By Period
McDavid
Kadri
P1
47.5%
52.7%
P2
48.6%
50.2%
P3
46.7%
40.2%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 05:42 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |