Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Dowd 49.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 80.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Dowd
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
53.4% (485)
-7.1%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
0.0% (2)
+52.4%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
39.8% (186)
+12.8%
On power play, McDavid has a +52.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (187).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
49.8% (325)
48.5% (307)
Away
44.6% (316)
50.3% (366)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
46.2%
50.7%
P2
48.6%
49.1%
P3
47.1%
49.6%
OT
33.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |