Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Dowd 49.1% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Dowd
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
51.7% (644)
-4.2%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
0.0% (2)
+48.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
41.6% (221)
+4.9%
On power play, McDavid has a +48.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
50.2% (400)
48.6% (451)
Away
44.7% (365)
49.5% (416)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
47.5%
49.1%
P2
48.6%
47.3%
P3
46.7%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |