Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Dowd 48.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 87.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
49.2% (778)
+2.4%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
58.3% (12)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
44.0% (234)
-7.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
51.8% (415)
46.3% (492)
Away
50.4% (450)
49.8% (532)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
47.5%
49.1%
P2
51.6%
48.2%
P3
55.5%
46.9%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |