Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 53.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Dowd 53.3% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
McDavid
Dowd
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
5
McDavid
Dowd
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
6
McDavid
Dowd
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
55.4% (771)
-1.1%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
57.1% (7)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
45.5% (165)
-12.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
53.6% (507)
58.2% (462)
Away
53.8% (539)
49.3% (481)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
52.6%
55.6%
P2
54.1%
50.5%
P3
54.9%
53.9%
OT
44.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2022 | 3 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2022 | 1 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 3 | 11:14 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 3 | 02:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 06:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |