Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Dowd 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 88.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 87.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
McDavid
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
52.2% (835)
-4.5%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
60.0% (10)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
44.0% (350)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
47.3% (387)
51.5% (619)
Away
48.1% (389)
48.1% (576)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
47.6%
51.7%
P2
50.0%
51.6%
P3
45.0%
47.0%
Final 5 min
46.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |