Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (79% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 36-13 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 90.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
36
(49 meetings)
13
36
McDavid
Dowd
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
McDavid
Dowd
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
11
McDavid
Dowd
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
19
McDavid
Dowd
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
52.4% (6,009)
-4.7%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
56.1% (164)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
44.1% (1,635)
-0.7%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
49.3% (4,570)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
46.5%
51.7%
P2
48.7%
50.4%
P3
48.3%
50.3%
OT
40.9%
45.9%
Final 5 min
50.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:54 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2022 | 3 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |