Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Dowd 48.1% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 63.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 65.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Dowd
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
McDavid
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
47.2% (608)
-3.9%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
53.1% (96)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
0.0% (3)
+41.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (331).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (483).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
48.7% (413)
48.7% (384)
Away
37.4% (393)
46.7% (323)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
38.8%
50.2%
P2
46.8%
47.5%
P3
44.2%
46.2%
OT
45.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
43.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:49 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |