Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Paul 53.6% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 70.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 83.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 71.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Paul
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
53.8% (318)
-6.3%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
61.4% (57)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.0% (32)
-3.5%
On power play, Paul has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (297).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
50.2% (400)
54.6% (183)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.5% (224)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
47.5%
57.0%
P2
48.6%
56.2%
P3
46.7%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |