Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Paul 53.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 67.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 67.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McDavid
Paul
Last 7: McDavid 2-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
5
McDavid
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
53.1% (710)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
57.3% (199)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
58.0% (69)
-21.6%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
51.8% (415)
56.0% (466)
Away
50.4% (450)
52.7% (512)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
47.5%
57.2%
P2
51.6%
54.9%
P3
55.5%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 18:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |