Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Paul 53.4% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 57.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
53.8% (753)
-2.3%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
58.9% (90)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
47.4% (78)
+3.8%
On power play, McDavid has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
50.7% (513)
54.2% (450)
Away
53.2% (498)
53.3% (471)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
52.3%
58.2%
P2
51.6%
50.6%
P3
51.7%
52.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |