Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Paul 50.4% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 72.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
McDavid
Paul
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
McDavid
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
McDavid
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
53.0% (644)
+1.3%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
37.5% (24)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
42.9% (177)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
53.6% (507)
52.5% (516)
Away
53.8% (539)
47.1% (329)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
52.6%
47.6%
P2
54.1%
48.4%
P3
54.9%
54.5%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 2 | 11:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 18:25 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:37 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |