Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Paul 50.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 67.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 58.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
48.8% (666)
-1.1%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
53.8% (65)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
60.0% (55)
-37.8%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +37.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
47.3% (387)
49.7% (348)
Away
48.1% (389)
50.2% (438)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
47.6%
51.0%
P2
50.0%
47.4%
P3
45.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |