Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 49.6% vs Paul 51.7% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 76.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McDavid
Paul
Last 5: McDavid 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (621)
56.2% (274)
-7.1%
Power Play
78.6% (14)
52.9% (17)
+25.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
43.4% (129)
-43.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (456).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
56.1% (330)
52.3% (235)
Away
42.5% (308)
51.9% (185)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
49.2%
53.2%
P2
47.4%
53.8%
P3
53.0%
49.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2021 | 3 | 06:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |