Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Suzuki 50.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 69.2%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 59.4%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 71.4%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
McDavid
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Suzuki
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
51.3% (904)
-3.8%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
49.8% (265)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
36.8% (57)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Suzuki is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (921).
Home / Away
McDavid
Suzuki
Home
50.2% (400)
50.6% (603)
Away
44.7% (365)
50.1% (623)
By Period
McDavid
Suzuki
P1
47.5%
52.3%
P2
48.6%
47.5%
P3
46.7%
51.1%
OT
33.3%
48.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |