Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Suzuki 52.4% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 62.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 60.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
McDavid
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Suzuki
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
1
McDavid
Suzuki
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
2
McDavid
Suzuki
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Suzuki
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
51.3% (1,096)
+0.3%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
59.9% (157)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
56.9% (58)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, Suzuki has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Suzuki is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (961).
Home / Away
McDavid
Suzuki
Home
51.8% (415)
54.2% (638)
Away
50.4% (450)
51.0% (673)
By Period
McDavid
Suzuki
P1
47.5%
51.5%
P2
51.6%
53.3%
P3
55.5%
52.4%
OT
50.0%
58.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 02:37 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |