Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Cates 45.5% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 61.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 60.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
McDavid
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McDavid
Cates
Last 8: McDavid 5-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McDavid
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
45.4% (712)
+2.1%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
42.2% (102)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
44.7% (47)
+1.8%
On power play, McDavid has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cates
Home
50.2% (400)
46.3% (423)
Away
44.7% (365)
43.6% (438)
By Period
McDavid
Cates
P1
47.5%
46.3%
P2
48.6%
47.1%
P3
46.7%
42.1%
OT
33.3%
18.2%
Final 5 min
51.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |