Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Cates 40.4% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 93.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 81.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 88.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 87.9%
87.9%
12.1%
McDavid
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
McDavid
Cates
Last 10: McDavid 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
2
McDavid
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
40.4% (841)
+11.1%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
42.4% (66)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
32.7% (147)
+18.5%
On power play, McDavid has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cates
Home
50.7% (513)
38.2% (566)
Away
53.2% (498)
41.0% (488)
By Period
McDavid
Cates
P1
52.3%
40.5%
P2
51.6%
42.4%
P3
51.7%
35.3%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.5%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 17:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |