Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Cates 45.1% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 77.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
McDavid
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Cates
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
McDavid
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
McDavid
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
46.7% (912)
+1.0%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
33.9% (56)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
35.0% (137)
-12.8%
On power play, McDavid has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cates
Home
47.3% (387)
46.1% (521)
Away
48.1% (389)
43.3% (584)
By Period
McDavid
Cates
P1
47.6%
48.0%
P2
50.0%
42.3%
P3
45.0%
44.3%
Final 5 min
46.8%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 06:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:14 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |