Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Cates 45.8% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 57.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 59.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 63.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
McDavid
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McDavid
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
44.3% (271)
+7.3%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
77.8% (18)
-27.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
31.7% (41)
+4.7%
On power play, Cates has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cates
Home
51.8% (415)
52.0% (148)
Away
50.4% (450)
38.5% (182)
By Period
McDavid
Cates
P1
47.5%
42.7%
P2
51.6%
42.9%
P3
55.5%
48.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
51.1%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Noah Cates |