Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Couturier 53.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.7%
Defensive zone
Couturier 84.1%
Neutral zone
Couturier 60.7%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
McDavid
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
McDavid
Couturier
Last 9: McDavid 5-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Couturier
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
McDavid
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
53.4% (758)
-5.9%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
62.9% (70)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.7% (227)
-4.2%
On power play, Couturier has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
McDavid
Couturier
Home
50.2% (400)
50.7% (517)
Away
44.7% (365)
56.1% (538)
By Period
McDavid
Couturier
P1
47.5%
55.2%
P2
48.6%
53.0%
P3
46.7%
53.3%
OT
33.3%
42.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:14 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |