Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Aho 48.7% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 57.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 56.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McDavid
Aho
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
47.4% (953)
-0.5%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
58.0% (174)
-15.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
41.6% (77)
+2.8%
On power play, Aho has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
47.9% (478)
50.2% (609)
Away
45.2% (440)
46.9% (595)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
45.9%
48.7%
P2
47.7%
50.2%
P3
46.6%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2019 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 2 | 05:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 1 | 19:09 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 1 | 06:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 1 | 00:53 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 1 | 00:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 12:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |