Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.9% vs 51.4%). Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Aho 51.2% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 66.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 69.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
McDavid
Aho
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
McDavid
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
48.5% (778)
+3.0%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
63.4% (191)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
50.8% (65)
+0.4%
On even strength, McDavid has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
50.7% (513)
51.3% (530)
Away
53.2% (498)
51.4% (504)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
52.3%
50.0%
P2
51.6%
51.3%
P3
51.7%
52.1%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
51.9%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 01:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 19:29 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |